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Just like we did at the end of May, at the end of June , and at the end of August - Here is the Final edition of our look at the Rangers starting rotation. The point of this exercise is to dig a bit deeper than the basic stats for each starting pitcher to see what they are good at – or what they are not good at.

In the final analysis, 10 pitchers started games for the Rangers this season. Kevin Millwood (31), Scott Feldman (31), Derek Holland (21), Tommy Hunter (19), Vicente Padilla (18), Brandon McCarthy (17), Matt Harrison (11), Dustin Nippert (10), Kris Benson (2), and Doug Mathis (2). This study will focus on the eight pitchers who have made at least 10 starts.

There is plenty of good news to report as they worked a significantly higher amount of innings while doing a great job at dropping the rotation’s ERA.

Both Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman made over 30 starts with 18 Quality Starts each. That number may not blow your socks off, but those two seasons can rival pretty much any season we have seen around here by a starting pitcher in an awfully long time.

There were other signs of optimism as well, as the first year of the Nolan Ryan/Mike Maddux program seems like a perfect diving board to 2010.

Just so we are all up to speed with the different stats, IPS is Innings Per Start and PPS is Pitches Per Start. Everything else will be metrics that I am sure you are familiar with.

Before you start, we need to establish league averages for the stats so you understand what consitutes “league average”. So, here you go – These are the final American League Season Averages for the 2009 AL Season:

ERA – AL Average is 4.45
AVG – AL Average is .266
OBP – AL Average is .334
SLG – AL Average is .425
K/9 – AL Average is 6.86
BB/9 – AL Average is 3.39
HR/9 – AL Average is 1.11
WHIP – AL Average is 1.40

Below we will take apart each player and can examine how he fits against the league average:

Kevin Millwood Splits

Table Tutorial

Kevin Millwood had a very solid season by his standards, but most of his best work was done before July 1 and after September 1. He was 12 out of 16 for quality starts to start the year, and then went 6-15 the rest of the way in that all-important department. With nearly 200 innings, it is fair to ask if he pitched himself out as the season went on, and perhaps wasn’t in condition to remain at the pace he set in May and June.

But, his final numbers were mostly all better than league average. His ERA was amazing by Rangers’ standards and although he was not the most impressive pitcher on the staff down the stretch, he surely provided a bit of that anchor for the rest of the rotation for much of the year.

You could do better than Kevin Millwood, but you could also do much worse.

—————————————

Scott Feldman Splits

Table Tutorial

Feldman’s numbers are only as a Starter

The amazing success story of 2009, Scott Feldman almost matched Kevin Millwood in ERA before he hit the wall in September. His batting metrics of .245/.314/.359 blew away the league averages. He doesn’t allow base-runners, so he doesn’t get in trouble.

He also raised his often-discussed K Rate to a reasonable 5.26 per 9, so there is hope that he doesn’t apply to the Bill James anomoly rules.

17 wins were phenomenal, trailing only CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernandez. Those 3 each achieved 19, but they also had 3 more starts to get there. He appears to understand the fine art of pitching, which we have seen is not always something that can be learned.

Unlike last April, he is a lock for the rotation in 2010.

—————————————

Vicente Padilla Splits

Table Tutorial

Certainly capable of knocking your socks off in a start (NLCS Game 2), Padilla was the ultimate “Dow-Joneser” as Dick Vitale would love to say. Padilla allowed too many hits, too many runners, and his ERA and K Rate were lower than they have been.

He was the opposite of what they needed in a veteran, highly-compensated pitcher: he was undependable. As long as you never counted on anything from Padilla, he was fine. But the second you really needed him to pull through in a tough spot, he seemed to let you down. At that pay rate, and at that performance level, he was not worth the trouble.

—————————————

Derek Holland As A Starter

Table Tutorial

It is early in the Derek Holland story. He looked the part a few times this year, but for the most part, at 4 for 21 with quality starts, it was not good enough to cement his spot. He is a development project, and the Rangers will continue to hand him the ball every 5 days, but 20 more starts from now, this will not do. His ERA kept rising, his metrics were all poor (aside from K/Rate) and his worst numbers were Slugging Pct and HR Rate. Very bad combination.

Basically, when hitters make contact against Derek Holland, it generally either hits seats or off the wall it would seem. 2009 may go into the Holland book as a full learning experience, so let’s hope that we see more of what we saw that dynamite night of the trade deadline.

—————————————

Tommy Hunter Splits

Table Tutorial

Tommy makes it difficult to give Derek Holland a complete pass. Hunter is also extremely young. Hunter should have also been experiencing his growing pains, but instead he was outstanding until September. From July to August, he worked over 60 innings in 10 starts and opposing hitters barely hit over .200 against him. He actually strikes out fewer than Feldman, but like Feldman, he doesn’t allow hitters to put up the league average.

Hunter has a spot waiting for him in April, and like Feldman, I will feel pretty strong about the Tommy Hunter spot.

————————————-

Brandon McCarthy Splits

Table Tutorial

Hmmm. This is interesting. It is easy to consider McCarthy a disappointment, and because he cannot stay healthy that is not incorrect. But, when he did pitch this year (17 starts) he does have a story to tell. In September, he took the ball 6 times and opponents hit just .234/.295/.344 against him. That is a solid line. He strikes out over 6 per 9, which is 2nd only to Holland (3rd if you include Nippert). He appears to be improving, but I think patience is running out on the health issues. 2010 is likely his last year of leash on that front.

———————————-
Dustin Nippert Splits

Table Tutorial

Not sure what to make of Nippert. He went back and forth so often and these are just his numbers as a starter. He would seem to lack the ability to go deep in games, and his numbers are all right around league average except for his K/Rate. I agree with those who suggest he is an ideal swing man on a staff.

—————————————-

Matt Harrison Splits

Table Tutorial

Like McCarthy, the question is whether can he be depended upon. But, unlike McCarthy, his upside seems rather pedestrian based on his performance. In fact, that is kind. ERA over 6, under 5 K’s per 9, and the league slugs .500 against him. At this point, he is a guy.

—————————————-

Starting Rotation Totals

Table Tutorial

In the end, 68 QS out of 162 is not nearly the number we projected early. Only 2 AL teams (Oak, Balt) had fewer quality starts than the Rangers (CHI led with 86). But, with 949.2 innings, the Rangers pitched more innings than the rotations of the Yankees, Twins, A’s, Royals, Indians, and Orioles. This may not be the most impressive list, but there were years where there was no list at all. The Rangers traditionally get very few innings from their rotation in the new park era, and to get 80 more than last year supports the “1-more-out” directives.

They ranked 12th in strikeouts, with 598 strikeouts as starters, only the Orioles and Indians had fewer strikeouts. Teams like Boston and New York had almost 200 more strikeouts, so you can easily see how that places less stress on your defense and keeps runners from being moved along with contact.

Improvements were made, and because of the age of most of the rotation and the troops behind this group, the odds are reasonable that this franchise-long trend is turning in the right direction. Plenty of room for improvement, but as you learned while watching this team, pitching was not near the reason for failure that we have become accustomed to around here.

Perhaps 2010 will be even better.

Thoughts?

Just like we did at the end of May, at the end of June , and at the end of August - Here is the Final edition of our look at the Rangers starting rotation. The point of this exercise is to dig a bit deeper than the basic stats for each starting pitcher to see what they are good at – or what they are not good at.

In the final analysis, 10 pitchers started games for the Rangers this season. Kevin Millwood (31), Scott Feldman (31), Derek Holland (21), Tommy Hunter (19), Vicente Padilla (18), Brandon McCarthy (17), Matt Harrison (11), Dustin Nippert (10), Kris Benson (2), and Doug Mathis (2). This study will focus on the eight pitchers who have made at least 10 starts.

There is plenty of good news to report as they worked a significantly higher amount of innings while doing a great job at dropping the rotation’s ERA.

Both Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman made over 30 starts with 18 Quality Starts each. That number may not blow your socks off, but those two seasons can rival pretty much any season we have seen around here by a starting pitcher in an awfully long time.

There were other signs of optimism as well, as the first year of the Nolan Ryan/Mike Maddux program seems like a perfect diving board to 2010.

Just so we are all up to speed with the different stats, IPS is Innings Per Start and PPS is Pitches Per Start. Everything else will be metrics that I am sure you are familiar with.

Before you start, we need to establish league averages for the stats so you understand what consitutes “league average”. So, here you go – These are the final American League Season Averages for the 2009 AL Season:

ERA – AL Average is 4.45
AVG – AL Average is .266
OBP – AL Average is .334
SLG – AL Average is .425
K/9 – AL Average is 6.86
BB/9 – AL Average is 3.39
HR/9 – AL Average is 1.11
WHIP – AL Average is 1.40

Below we will take apart each player and can examine how he fits against the league average:

Kevin Millwood Splits

Table Tutorial

Kevin Millwood had a very solid season by his standards, but most of his best work was done before July 1 and after September 1. He was 12 out of 16 for quality starts to start the year, and then went 6-15 the rest of the way in that all-important department. With nearly 200 innings, it is fair to ask if he pitched himself out as the season went on, and perhaps wasn’t in condition to remain at the pace he set in May and June.

But, his final numbers were mostly all better than league average. His ERA was amazing by Rangers’ standards and although he was not the most impressive pitcher on the staff down the stretch, he surely provided a bit of that anchor for the rest of the rotation for much of the year.

You could do better than Kevin Millwood, but you could also do much worse.

—————————————

Scott Feldman Splits

Table Tutorial

Feldman’s numbers are only as a Starter

The amazing success story of 2009, Scott Feldman almost matched Kevin Millwood in ERA before he hit the wall in September. His batting metrics of .245/.314/.359 blew away the league averages. He doesn’t allow base-runners, so he doesn’t get in trouble.

He also raised his often-discussed K Rate to a reasonable 5.26 per 9, so there is hope that he doesn’t apply to the Bill James anomoly rules.

17 wins were phenomenal, trailing only CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernandez. Those 3 each achieved 19, but they also had 3 more starts to get there. He appears to understand the fine art of pitching, which we have seen is not always something that can be learned.

Unlike last April, he is a lock for the rotation in 2010.

—————————————

Vicente Padilla Splits

Table Tutorial

Certainly capable of knocking your socks off in a start (NLCS Game 2), Padilla was the ultimate “Dow-Joneser” as Dick Vitale would love to say. Padilla allowed too many hits, too many runners, and his ERA and K Rate were lower than they have been.

He was the opposite of what they needed in a veteran, highly-compensated pitcher: he was undependable. As long as you never counted on anything from Padilla, he was fine. But the second you really needed him to pull through in a tough spot, he seemed to let you down. At that pay rate, and at that performance level, he was not worth the trouble.

—————————————

Derek Holland As A Starter

Table Tutorial

It is early in the Derek Holland story. He looked the part a few times this year, but for the most part, at 4 for 21 with quality starts, it was not good enough to cement his spot. He is a development project, and the Rangers will continue to hand him the ball every 5 days, but 20 more starts from now, this will not do. His ERA kept rising, his metrics were all poor (aside from K/Rate) and his worst numbers were Slugging Pct and HR Rate. Very bad combination.

Basically, when hitters make contact against Derek Holland, it generally either hits seats or off the wall it would seem. 2009 may go into the Holland book as a full learning experience, so let’s hope that we see more of what we saw that dynamite night of the trade deadline.

—————————————

Tommy Hunter Splits

Table Tutorial

Tommy makes it difficult to give Derek Holland a complete pass. Hunter is also extremely young. Hunter should have also been experiencing his growing pains, but instead he was outstanding until September. From July to August, he worked over 60 innings in 10 starts and opposing hitters barely hit over .200 against him. He actually strikes out fewer than Feldman, but like Feldman, he doesn’t allow hitters to put up the league average.

Hunter has a spot waiting for him in April, and like Feldman, I will feel pretty strong about the Tommy Hunter spot.

————————————-

Brandon McCarthy Splits

Table Tutorial

Hmmm. This is interesting. It is easy to consider McCarthy a disappointment, and because he cannot stay healthy that is not incorrect. But, when he did pitch this year (17 starts) he does have a story to tell. In September, he took the ball 6 times and opponents hit just .234/.295/.344 against him. That is a solid line. He strikes out over 6 per 9, which is 2nd only to Holland (3rd if you include Nippert). He appears to be improving, but I think patience is running out on the health issues. 2010 is likely his last year of leash on that front.

———————————-
Dustin Nippert Splits

Table Tutorial

Not sure what to make of Nippert. He went back and forth so often and these are just his numbers as a starter. He would seem to lack the ability to go deep in games, and his numbers are all right around league average except for his K/Rate. I agree with those who suggest he is an ideal swing man on a staff.

—————————————-

Matt Harrison Splits

Table Tutorial

Like McCarthy, the question is whether can he be depended upon. But, unlike McCarthy, his upside seems rather pedestrian based on his performance. In fact, that is kind. ERA over 6, under 5 K’s per 9, and the league slugs .500 against him. At this point, he is a guy.

—————————————-

Starting Rotation Totals

Table Tutorial

In the end, 68 QS out of 162 is not nearly the number we projected early. Only 2 AL teams (Oak, Balt) had fewer quality starts than the Rangers (CHI led with 86). But, with 949.2 innings, the Rangers pitched more innings than the rotations of the Yankees, Twins, A’s, Royals, Indians, and Orioles. This may not be the most impressive list, but there were years where there was no list at all. The Rangers traditionally get very few innings from their rotation in the new park era, and to get 80 more than last year supports the “1-more-out” directives.

They ranked 12th in strikeouts, with 598 strikeouts as starters, only the Orioles and Indians had fewer strikeouts. Teams like Boston and New York had almost 200 more strikeouts, so you can easily see how that places less stress on your defense and keeps runners from being moved along with contact.

Improvements were made, and because of the age of most of the rotation and the troops behind this group, the odds are reasonable that this franchise-long trend is turning in the right direction. Plenty of room for improvement, but as you learned while watching this team, pitching was not near the reason for failure that we have become accustomed to around here.

Perhaps 2010 will be even better.

Thoughts?

Hello, Zac Crain here. You may remember me from such Mavericks playoff game live blogs as this one. I’m here today to talk to you about the future of InsideCorner, a scary, post-Evan Grant land filled with basketball, hockey, and Bob Sturm. I’m here today to tell you everything is going to be just fine.

First off, yes, Evan was certainly our star attraction during his six months handling the Rangers beat for us. But, arguably, what has made this blog so strong is you, the community that lives in the comments. We aim to continue that in the coming months as our focus shifts to other sports and other people writing about those other sports. We are hoping you remain our Lost-style constant.

Why should you stick around? For one, Bob Sturm and his big sports brain. You’ve already read and enjoyed his Cowboys coverage, as he breaks down each game like a fraction, before and after. He’s still here, and he’ll continue chiming in on everything from Dallas’ pro teams to UFC to  maybe even the English Premier League (though he follows the wrong team from Liverpool, if you ask me).

Also, we’re just about to embark on the NBA and NHL seasons, and there is plenty to talk about there. Jeff Miller is in the crease for Stars coverage, and Eric Celeste and I will be the glue guys keeping you up on the Mavs’ end. What to expect: week-by-week previews, live blogs for big games, and plenty of game books. Among other things — top-secret, ineffably awesome things, that we are currently working hard to make happen for you.

Plus, we will have some new players joining the roster in the coming weeks. They’re not going to replicate what Evan did, and we’re not asking them to. They’ll be conversation starters, ready to mix it up in the comments with you guys. Hopefully, it’ll be like watching games with friends, if one of your friends has a dashing salt-and-pepper beard and is fond of yelling “I see you big German!

More as events warrant. And never forget: I loved you, even when no one else did.

Hello, Zac Crain here. You may remember me from such Mavericks playoff game live blogs as this one. I’m here today to talk to you about the future of InsideCorner, a scary, post-Evan Grant land filled with basketball, hockey, and Bob Sturm. I’m here today to tell you everything is going to be just fine.

First off, yes, Evan was certainly our star attraction during his six months handling the Rangers beat for us. But, arguably, what has made this blog so strong is you, the community that lives in the comments. We aim to continue that in the coming months as our focus shifts to other sports and other people writing about those other sports. We are hoping you remain our Lost-style constant.

Why should you stick around? For one, Bob Sturm and his big sports brain. You’ve already read and enjoyed his Cowboys coverage, as he breaks down each game like a fraction, before and after. He’s still here, and he’ll continue chiming in on everything from Dallas’ pro teams to UFC to  maybe even the English Premier League (though he follows the wrong team from Liverpool, if you ask me).

Also, we’re just about to embark on the NBA and NHL seasons, and there is plenty to talk about there. Jeff Miller is in the crease for Stars coverage, and Eric Celeste and I will be the glue guys keeping you up on the Mavs’ end. What to expect: week-by-week previews, live blogs for big games, and plenty of game books. Among other things — top-secret, ineffably awesome things, that we are currently working hard to make happen for you.

Plus, we will have some new players joining the roster in the coming weeks. They’re not going to replicate what Evan did, and we’re not asking them to. They’ll be conversation starters, ready to mix it up in the comments with you guys. Hopefully, it’ll be like watching games with friends, if one of your friends has a dashing salt-and-pepper beard and is fond of yelling “I see you big German!

More as events warrant. And never forget: I loved you, even when no one else did.

Four Days ago, I wrote that the NBA Playoffs have been amazing this spring. Since that was written, we have had four games, won by four different teams. These conference finals are enough to make you forget about most everything else.

And as we ponder the events of the last 7 glorious days of NBA basketball and look ahead to the next 7 that will determine who will be in the NBA Finals, here are some quick thoughts on each team that is still very much in the hunt:

DENVER NUGGETS

What you have to like:If you are the Nuggets, you have to love a few things about the way this series is headed. First, the idea that the physical nature of the game seems to be working against most of the Lakers. They may not be withering quite to the extent that New Orleans or Dallas did, but the fact seems to be that the Lakers do not appreciate this overly-physical mid-90’s Knicks/Heat basketball. But, if you think about it, the Nuggets likely could not win any other way. They have been in prime position to win all 4 games of this series, and although they have given home-court advantage back to the Lakers, there is a chance that this is a series where being at home doesn’t matter too much. The combination of Nene, Kenyon, and Birdman seem to be wearing down the Lakers. If this continues, the Nuggets have a great chance to represent the West. By the way, you also have to love that there are no extra days off for Kobe. Games Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday with travel each day in between the rest of the way will not replenish the energy supplies of a guy who is a) carrying his team and b) starting to look gassed.

What you have to hate:Carmelo Anthony has played a lot of games this year and is not used to that. While Kobe’s body expects 100+ games a year, Carmelo is usually doing whatever Carmelo does in the off-season by this time of year. Carmelo played a big role in the Olympics and then a full season. Now, he is in his 3rd round of the playoffs, and his last 3 games are not a positive trend. After a monster series against Dallas and an equally huge effort against LA in game 1, Carmelo has shot 19-58 (32%) in the last 3 games. You might say, “But, Bob, the Nuggets are winning those games.” True. But we have seen a distinct difference in the final 3 minutes in this series because the Lakers have Kobe. For the Nuggets to get out of this series, Carmelo is going to have to “out-Kobe” Kobe in the Staples Center during crunch time…again.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

What you have to like: There are a few things to like if you are Phil Jackson and the Lakers – not the least of which is that it appears Pau Gasol has really grown up in these playoffs. It does seem that he is ready to go right at the Nuggets, no matter how many hard fouls are given. Gasol is joining Kobe in those two games in Denver, and that is surely a good thing. A bigger positive is that they had to win at least one game in Denver to get home court advantage back, and had that in the bag on Saturday. You can certainly make the case that in Game 4, the Lakers did not play with near the urgency, and that showed on the glass where they were embarrassed. The bottom line is that they have 2 games left at the Staples Center with a very determined Kobe Bryant at the helm. If they win them both, they are back in the NBA Finals, but I do wonder what they will have left when they get there.

What you have to hate: 2 words: Lamar Odom. Seriously. What does this guy do? Because he hasn’t helped the Lakers at all in this series aside from his legendary guarding of the inbounds play – which should not be undersold. Otherwise, as the anchor of the Lakers bench, he has failed badly. He averages 15 points a game over his career, and over 11 ppg this season. But, in this series, he is scoring just 7.5, and if anyone looks intimidated by the Nuggets front line, it is Odom. I don’t get what has happened to him, but this free-agent-to-be is not having a very good contract year. If he doesn’t step it up soon, the Lakers are going to get beat. They could also use some help from the perimeter, but Odom is the key.

ORLANDO MAGIC

What you have to like:This one is pretty obvious. If it wasn’t for from of the biggest shots in recent NBA history going in, the Orlando Magic could and should be ahead 3 games to 0 against a team that one week ago most of the NBA thought may not lose a game before the NBA Finals. The Magic have received big efforts at different times from all 3 of its “star” players; Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu. Honestly, all 3 are pretty new to this stage for different reasons, but the big shots that Lewis hit and the all-around play of Turkoglu is off the charts. As a team, they have done a fabulous job of making LeBron work and at times made him feel like he was out there by himself. Mission accomplished on that front as the Cavs look pretty clueless on offense right now. Even with the LeBron miracle, the Magic have beaten the Cavs in 10 of the last 14. And, they don’t seem to be taken with being on the same court as Cleveland.

What you have to hate: That Lebron has scored 125 in the first 3 games of this series, and he doesn’t appear about to slow down. Beating the man on the mission twice is a nice trick, but it don’t mean a thing unless you beat him 4 times. Other than that? How much can you really hate if you are the Magic? You have a chance to go up 3-1 tonight. I would caution Stan Van Gundy to stop obsessing about the calls that LeBron is getting. That can take your team’s focus to the refs as opposed to locking down the Cavs supporting cast. The reality that is being revealed is that the Cavs may have the better player, but the Magic may have the better team.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

What you have to like: Well, I suppose the easy answer is that the most unstoppable force in the universe right now is wearing your jersey. He seems pretty determined himself, and the Cavaliers are a win tonight away from being back in the driver’s seat in this series. They did not win 66 games by accident, and the fact is that this team has not seen adversity very much so a 2-1 deficit is traumatic to Cleveland right now, but it isn’t that big of a deal really if they take care of their business moving forward.

What you have to hate:That besides Delonte West, LeBron is not being helped much. Mo Williams and Zydrunas Ilgauskas both have scoring declines in these playoffs and there are times where LeBron looks like he is playing by himself. The bench looks positively helpless, and Daniel Gibson ($3.7M), Wally Szczerbiak ($13M), and Big Ben Wallace ($14.5M) are combining for 7 points per game in the playoffs while making nearly $31 million. You also have to hate that it appears that when it is time to stop Hedo, the Cavs defense is having a hard time closing him down without surrendering a wide-open 3 from Lewis or another teammate.

Before the series began, I had the Cavs in 5 and the Lakers in 7. If I had it to choose all over again, I think I will still take the two favorites, but at this point, all 4 teams have a great reason to believe they will be playing into mid June. If you would have told me 3 months ago that the conference finals would include Denver and Orlando, you would have had a hard time selling me on the excitement level. But, this has delivered in a huge way.

Can’t wait for tonight.

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There have been years when the NBA Playoffs were not very good.

This would not be one of them.

The last 3 nights have provided some of the best NBA Playoff basketball that we have seen in recent years, and I hope you are watching. The Nuggets vs. Lakers in the West have played 2 instant classics in the first two contests of that series, and the largely anonymous Orlando Magic gave Cleveland its first loss of the post-season on Wednesday in Game 1 of the Eastern Finals.

After 2 rounds of weeding out the weaklings, we are now officially ready to rumble.

Western Finals:

This one is clearly the main event in my world, and I would guess anyone who is obsessed with Mavericks basketball. These are the two teams you are chasing and if you have followed the Mavs for 10 minutes, you know these are the two teams the Mavs have no answers for. They are athletic, they are tough to guard, and they have put their rosters together in such a way that there is no quick fix for the Mavs to get in their range. The Mavs seem to need about 2 or 3 pieces to add to their roster to get into a position to be able to match up with the Lakers or Nuggets.

But in watching them play each other, the basketball is absolutely riveting. Let me list a few things that have drawn my full attention:

* Watching Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol square off against the Nuggets front line. This is interesting because Gasol gets compared quite a bit to Dirk. They have somewhat similar games and it seems that the Lakers are far more equipped to tangle with the Nuggets, but Denver is definitely trying to play as physical as possible. An isolation camera on Kenyon Martin last night showed that he is seriously out there trying to goon it up (there, does that not hurt so much?) and the refs are not protecting Gasol any more than they protected Dirk. Kenyon throws his hips and elbows into the post men of LA on many occasions, and Nene brings the noise as well. One guy who has been somewhat silent in the first few games in Los Angeles is the Birdman. His athleticism is not near the mismatch. The other silent big man in this series seems to be Andrew Bynum who when he is hurt he is made out to be one of the most unstoppable forces in the NBA by media types. But now, with him back, he sits on the bench and watches at key moments of the game. The battle of the front line is a very competitive battle, but nothing like….

* The Battle of Kobe v. Carmelo. Wow. This is worth the price of admission. Both guys are stuck on “unstoppable” right now. We expect it out of Kobe. Surely, a few months short of his 31st birthday, Kobe realizes that he does not have an infinite amount of time left to win that elusive “Shaq-free” ring that he requires to cement his legacy. He has done it all – sort of – but you know that he knows that we know that he needs to win one without Shaq scoring 30 points and 17 rebounds in the NBA Finals of 2000-2002. Kobe looks determined and desperate. Meanwhile, Carmelo has officially broken out. Why? Is it because Iverson has been sent away? Is it because of the 2008 Olympics? Is it getting rid of the braids? Is it just the proper maturation process of a 24 year old superstar? Regardless of the reasons, Carmelo has flipped a switch in these playoffs where now he will not be denied, either. Watching him last night decide to take the game over reminded me of his 2003 NCAA Final Four performance for Syracuse. Being unstoppable combined with knowing you are unstoppable is a wonderful thing to watch. The only issue with Denver is whether he is too passive in demanding the ball at crunch time at certain times. If he doesn’t demand the ball, it seems there are too many Nuggets who think they are the man, and forget who really is the man. Kobe versus Carmelo is flat-out wonderful. And, we have yet to play a game in Denver, but I would imagine the good fans of Denver may reference various details of Kobe’s summer in Colorado in 2003 , no? This should be wonderful this weekend.

* Chauncey Billups and Derek Fisher both making key plays at key moments.Both key veteran players who know their way around the playoffs are absolute keys to their teams based on the 128 career playoff games Billups has played and the 166 career playoff games Fisher has played. 294 playoff games for those two players alone. Add 165 more for Kobe. I would suggest these three guards have seen a few different scenarios in a hostile road arena. In other words, waving your arms why they shoot free throws will probably not rattle them.

* The coaching chess game. Phil versus George Karl. While we are counting games, a quick look at NBA.com shows that Phil Jackson has coached 1764 games through last night, Karl 1729. But here is the shocking difference. They have both lost 86 playoff games in their respective careers. Karl is 71-86 in the playoffs. Phil? 202-86. It is possible that Phil’s wisdom in coaching teams that have always contained either Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant has certainly helped. Can you imagine that? He has never NOT had either Jordan or Kobe in his entire coaching career.

Anyway, with the series now tied up at 1-1, this will really get interesting in Denver. I still think the Lakers emerge, but it will take 7 games.

Eastern Finals:

I don’t have much here, because I honestly have not cared too much about the Eastern Conference playoffs in general, but now that we are down to the Lebron show, it is captivating as well. I think most of us have anticipated a Kobe-Lebron final since Christmas, but now what once seemed like a sure thing is now a bit more tenuous. But Lebron’s attempt to take over the full claim on being the game’s best player is not tenuous at all.

His ability to take over the game from the opening tip through the final buzzer is certainly enough to make people throw out Jordan-type comparisons. I cringe at this for a guy who is 24, but the similarities are pretty obvious. Maybe the difference is that Jordan did not find great success until he was joined by a great coach and a clear #2 in Scottie Pippen. Lebron seems to lack both of those, as his coach seems pretty ordinary and his mates all seem easily replaceable. Nevertheless, his greatness carries them along with great ease most nights.

But then, here comes Orlando – the unwanted guest at the dinner table – in Game 1, riding the high of their Game 7 win in Boston, still nailing all sorts of 3 point bombs to take home court advantage away. Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkaglu? Really? And why am I not seeing much from Dwight Howard at crunch time, because he is undoubtedly their best player, right? Well, his free throw issue is keeping him from being a force in the paint at crunch time. But, here is free-agent-to-be Hedo playing PG and making plays and Lewis knocking down huge shots.

I still expect Cleveland advances easily, but the drama of the 4th Quarter of Game 1 was wonderful, and certainly on par with everything the West is throwing out there.

I know some of you are still in Mavs depression, but, trust me, the quality of basketball we are seeing right now from the biggest stars in the game mean that we have as many as 18 more games to go in the NBA season, and if you love the game you might not want to miss any of them. Or at least the 4th Quarters of any of them.

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24 hours after the end of the Mavericks season, and I cannot quite move on just yet.  I understand why the season ended, but one thing that I don’t understand is why the Mavericks have been committed to the same strategy year after year on offense.

They built a team around Dirk.  That makes sense on a number of levels, because for all of his flaws, he may just be one of the most unique talents in NBA history.  A 7-foot perimeter sniper who can also perform some McHale-like post moves when he is interested.

The problem, to me, comes back to the way they build the rest of the team.  If you are going to build around a perimeter shooter, you must vary the rest of your 5.  You should have a penetrating guard and you would prefer to find a post presence.  If you did, then a Dirk-team would be more dangerous.  But building a team is a little more difficult than simply realizing what you need. You have to figure out a way to get it.

The trouble is, the Mavs have not had a penetrating guard who could also defend and run the team.  Nash could penetrate, but he would get abused by Mike Bibby or Tony Parker in the playoffs on defense.  Devin Harris did not demonstrate a very promising ability to distribute the ball and run the offense, so the Mavs gave up on him and traded him for Jason Kidd.

Kidd does run the offense well, but he never gets to the rim (it is quite maddening that he appears to have no desire to take and convert a layup) and doesn’t seem to defend Point Guards much at all.  Jason Terry almost never gets to the rim as he loves to launch and appears to be a liability on defense.  Erick Dampier has no post presence on either end and if you ever count on him, his foul trouble or lack of interest will disappoint you.  And Josh Howard is Josh Howard.  So, you get the Mavericks.  A real good team with real big flaws.

The Mavericks are a successful NBA team, and they are such because they have figured out how to play a style that works for them most of the time.  The problem, as I have been harping about for years now, is that there is a certain game of percentages when relying on a 23-foot shot.  Whereas, when you take 2-foot shots, the percentages greatly improve.   And there are the Mavs in a nutshell:  They take 23-footers and give up dunks.  If you make enough of the 23-footers, you win any game you play.  If you miss those shots, your run comes to an end.

Don’t believe me?  Let’s examine the best example of this on record, the 3rd Quarter of Game 5 in Denver.  What you are about to see is every shot the Mavericks took in the entire quarter:

And there it is.  Look at that.  That is every single shot of the 3rd Quarter, and we wonder why people see the Mavs as a jump shooting team.  You are what you are.

Here is the ESPN shot chart for the 3rd quarter (Dallas is on the left). It is enough to make John Wooden cry.

So, what do they do about it?  We shall see.  But, I believe the definition of insanity is repeating the same process and expecting a different result.  It starts and ends in the off-season.  The 2008-09 Mavericks were the best they could be.  But they weren’t built to be the best.  If you want them to be the best, then Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban must begin to change the fatal flaws in this team.

Defense and lay-ups win championships.   Beautiful jump shots are the frosting of a good team, not the cake.

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8 preseason games, 82 regular season games and 10 playoff games later – 100 in all – the 2008-09 Dallas Mavericks are nothing but a memory.

59 of those 100 games were wins this year, so you certainly enjoyed some reasonable quality along the way.  But, it is now over.

It feels a bit different this year than the previous few.  2006 was a heartbreak that will never heal.  2007 was an ambush to the senses that resembled an assassination.  No warning, just quick and lethal – the so called best team in the NBA was not.  2008 was the realization of reality.  The team’s window might have closed, and Avery Johnson was the one thing that dysfunctional team could agree on:  He had to go.

But here in 2009, it seems different altogether.  Perhaps it is because the bar was lowered down to more realistic levels, but given that many didn’t expect them to make the playoffs 60 days ago, a season that contained a series win over the hated San Antonio Spurs doesn’t seem that painful.  Maybe it was the long death of the Nuggets series – one that you kind of knew was coming 9 days ago when Game 2’s route was on – but for whatever the reasons, it is hard to imagine too many shed tears last night after Denver finished off Dallas in Game 5.  Like a relative dying after a long battle with a disease, we certainly had a chance to come to terms.

Denver was better.  And not by just a little bit.

You could make a reasonable case that Dallas had the best player in the series, but we all know that while basketball has some 1-on-1 tendencies, a 48 minute game and certainly a 7 game series comes down to who has the better team.  Who has the better #2 scorer?  Who has the better shot-blocker?  Who has the better back-up Point Guard?  Who has the better #3 scorer?  Who has the better post defense?  Who has the better 6th man?  Who has the better team?

There is no question that Denver is the answer to most of those inquiries.   And to the victor go the spoils.

Game 4 and Game 5 was not so much about winning the series as it was showing fight and heart.  The idea that you could win 4 straight games against a team that you had lost 7 straight against this season was a long-shot that was never going to happen.  But, would they earn some respect for the way they clawed and scrapped to delay the inevitable?  I guess that is for the NBA to decide.  But, I appreciated it.  I have seen this team go down without a fight (Game 6 in Golden State ‘07, Pretty much the entire series of New Orleans ‘08), so while it doesn’t really mean anything in the record books, I was happy to know that Dirk wanted a Game 6 and was ready to fight hard to get it.

But, another season ends without a parade for Dirk and his mates.

Thoughts and Observations from the last dance of 08-09:

*  The best and worst of Josh Howard was there for all to see in Denver.  He came out scoring and flying around and making plays early.   Then he committed a dumb foul after a miss, missed an amazing 3 out of 3 free throws to help spark a Nuggets run, took a technical foul when he lost his composure, and pretty much was a 2nd half non-factor.  One of these days I will actually research the shooting performances of Josh based on his first 3 point attempt.  If he makes his first, it is my premise that he then feels like he is in “the zone” and will jack many more.  He did.  5 more.  And missed each and every one.  Really the one guy who can be a slasher becomes more and more a perimeter player with each passing year.  He will now get his ankles repaired and we can wonder what the mystery of J-Ho will bring us in the future.  He can be the most exciting player and the most frustrating player all at the same time.  He makes me crazy.

*  Carmelo is surely coming into his own.  His finger roll last night will be a mainstay on highlight films for years, I should think.  He is a lethal scorer, and while his next series will put him to a much better test, I am quite sold.  I question how much he was tested in this series because he was often allowed to be on the periphery while his mates took turns torturing the silly Mavs defense.  He was not asked to score on possession after possession like Dirk was on the other end, so I am not positive he was the best player in this series.  But, that might just be because he didn’t have to be.  He was saving his energy for the Lakers.

*  About that Mavericks silly defense:  So, really?  You decided after 4 games to attempt to play a line-up where you just try to outscore them?  34 and 35 point quarters in the first half gives up an amazing 69 points!  Easy baskets, dunks, and open 3’s.  I know a coach can only do so much, but please dump the zone back in the trash.  I have seen enough zone defense possessions ending with Carmelo or JR Smith standing weak side with a wide open 3 to last me for a while.   In the NBA, a zone can throw you off if you are not prepared for it.  But, in a 7 game series, you work on beating the zone for 15 minutes in a practice, and you make it look stupid.  Mission accomplished there.

*  Erick Dampier’s greatest moment?  His free-throw line jumper where everyone in the entire arena stopped for a brief pause and wondered if he was really going to attempt a 16 footer.  I stood in my living room pondering this moment in time.  He then decided that he was going to shoot.  His defender backed off to double-dare him.  The arena was quiet.  Then, he did.  He knocked it down.  And then, like a 2nd grader who made his first basket, he tried not to smile and wave at his family on the way back down the court.  Sorry, he remains worthless to this team’s future.  But, he does become an attractive expiring contract!

*  Sometimes, the media over-rates the hometown guy who brings a team together.  Chauncey Billups is not a good example of “that guy”.  I don’t think you can over-rate what he does.  He makes the Nuggets make sense.  He takes and makes the big shots.   He makes key plays.  And most importantly, he brings the knuckleheads together.    28 points, 12 assists, and 7 rebounds.  I would like to apologize to him for thinking that Jason Kidd could play him to a push.  Kidd was badly out-played.

*  I am interested in the NBA bench player who has plenty of ability in his limited minutes.  Most message boards and phone-ins would then take a player who is good for 18 minutes and ask why he shouldn’t play 36?   Brandon Bass, JJ Barea, Chris “Birdman” Anderson, etc.  I think in all 3 of those cases, they are text-book examples of “less is more”.   When they play too much, you quickly see the issues.  Bass is better with high energy – and he cannot play with that high energy if you over-expose him.  And he is too small to play big minutes.  Love him…as a bench guy.  Birdman has an amazing foul-per-minute pace, and is way better at home.  Classic bench energy guy.   And sweet little JJ needs the right opponent to make an impact.  I think he is a fine back-up PG, but please save your “JJ to start” emails.  All 3 are useful parts, but in the NBA, you need those useful parts of your bench.  You must be careful not to over-expose.

*  Antoine Wright is worth keeping around.  But, if that dude takes one more bad technical at just the wrong time I am going to lose patience.  Playing Denver in Denver is tough enough, dude.  Let’s not make it tougher.  Low basketball IQ’s on this team are everywhere.   On the other hand, if you are going to get in a fight with someone, JR Smith would be an inviting target for a punch.

*  Match-ups you had to win (or at least tie) if you had any chance in this series:  Kidd vs. Billups.  Terry vs Smith.  Nene vs. Dampier.  0-3.  By the way, not that he needs the money, but how much money did Kidd make in the Spurs series?  And then did he lose it all back in the Nuggets series?

*  Hey TNT:  When you are doing a game, please keep the following idea in mind – I care why players are getting technical fouls way more than I care which old guy has had Nuggets tickets for 40 years.  How they have no footage nor comments on Howard’s or Terry’s technicals, and yet have 3 references to the white dude with money in Row 4, is beyond me.   Heaven forbid we cover the relevant and pertinent information, but, please.

*  Although I did not have a microphone between Kenyon and Dirk in the post game handshake, I swear Kenyon admitted to what we all knew already:  Dirk kicked his —-ing (butt).   Check the tape and tell me I am wrong.   At least Dirk was ready for a street fight.  Kenyon will be very happy to go mess with Pau Gasol now.

*  Carmelo’s 3 off the inbounds with 2 seconds on the shot clock was the dagger.  Combined with Wright’s  technical at the same moment, it took a 6 point lead and made it 10, at 107-97.  Ballgame.  What a shot, and at quite a moment.

*  So, at the risk of writing the exact same final paragraph that I did in the 2007 and 2008 final wraps, the ball is now passed to Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban.  I don’t know if they realize it yet, but this 2006 NBA Finals group (Dirk, Jet, Josh, and Damp) is not going to ever win the title as presently constituted.  They had a nice year, but are miles from the ultimate prize.  You have a 1st team all-NBA player, but his clock is ticking.  Dallas is built as a perimeter team that gives up too many easy baskets.  They are not tough in the paint on either end of the court, and have very few young pieces that could grow into key spots in the roster.  With Jason Kidd now a free agent, this team has a number of decisions to make.  They apparently have an owner who is a buyer while the rest of the league is selling during this economic disaster in the NBA in most cities.   Just like in 2007 and 2008, I think this team needs a massive over-haul of personnel in 2009.  Of course, they ignored me in 2007 and 2008, so I am not counting on wholesale changes.  But, they need them.  They need to try to build a roster that can take advantage of Dirk’s remaining prime.  But, will they?  If not, just trade Dirk already and let him get a ring by helping a team that could use his mighty skill.

Your move, Mark Cuban.

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